A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
